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Why Kamala Harris is the frontrunner in a field without Biden- POLITICO

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President Joe Biden said he intended to run for office in 2024.

If he does not, however, the Vice President KAMALA HARRIS is the best placed to take the torch of the party.

It’s not just because she’s currently in the front line for the presidency. That’s because — despite a first year with poor headlines and a few unforced errors — she has built up a significant lead among black voters who were the deciding constituency in the 2008, 2016 and 2020 Democratic nomination fights.

A review of recent polls tells the story.

A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll from December measured Harris’ support among black voters at 52% in a Biden-less primary in 2024. His closest competitor was Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (DN.Y.) to 7% (Secretary of Transport PETE BUTTIGIEG was 3%).

Another poll last month from Republican firm Echelon Insightspegged support for Harris among black voters at 53%, with the Georgia gubernatorial candidate STACEY ABRAMS registering the second highest level of support at 13%. A spokesperson for Abrams pointed out us to past campaign statements refuting the idea that she would run for president in 2024.

It’s a stark turnaround from 2019 when Harris struggled to win over black voters during his own presidential campaign, a campaign that gives the vice president a grassroots Democratic constituency at a time of growing talk about the uncertain future of the Democratic Party’s leadership.

After reviewing these polls, the Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher said he expects Biden to run for re-election. He also warned that polls this early should be taken with “a huge nugget of salt”. Still, Belcher, the author of ‘A Black Man in the White House,’ said, “I’m amazed at how she’s running off the field with African-American voters so soon, because I don’t haven’t seen.”

Noting that BARACK OBAMA didn’t have those types of numbers against HILLARY CLINTON for much of his 2008 candidacy, he added, “You don’t see that. You don’t see this often…. It’s clear that the work she’s done is starting to give her credibility and sympathy with African-American voters in a way that no one else in the field has right now.

Belcher speculated that Harris’ support may have come from a combination of his outreach and a backlash from being the target of near-constant criticism from conservatives. “African Americans are seeing this and rallying behind their leaders,” he said.

Democratic strategists note that the black vote could be even more crucial in 2024 if the party pursues the elimination of Iowa’s caucuses, which are overwhelmingly made up of white voters.

While Harris’ primary polling strength is fueled by black Democrats, it’s not limited to one precinct. Over the past 12 months, 27 polls have tested a 2024 Democratic primary game that did not include Biden’s name as a candidate, according to the FiveThirtyEight database. Harris was the leader in 21 of them. The other six had only the former First Lady MICHAEL OBAMA in front and she was notoriously indifferent.

Last month’s poll from Echelon Insights had Harris at 30% support.

It’s hardly a juggernaut on the surface, but it’s nearly three times the support of second-place contender Buttigieg at 11%.

Harris’ office declined to comment.

TEXT US – ARE YOU KRISTINA KVIEN, Biden’s acting ambassador to Ukraine? We know you’re probably a little busy, but we want to hear from you (we’ll keep you anonymous).

Or if you think we missed something in today’s edition, let us know and maybe we’ll include it tomorrow. Email us at [email protected] or SMS/Signal/Wickr/WhatsApp Alex at 8183240098 or Max at 7143455427.

Since the Miller Center at the University of Virginia

The President’s Secretary of State said, “I thought terrorism was a form of war, different from the one that was always planned. You had to respond, and you had to do more than respond, more than defend. You had to be able to take preventive measures and use your military forces to do so”?

(Answer below.)

Readers of this newsletter have probably heard enough about the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, so we’ll spare you a full recap (excellent summaries can be found in game book or in the washington post). But we have a few unreported moments that we thought were worth mentioning.

PASSAGE PASSAGE: Actress DIANE LANEa longtime Biden supporter who co-hosted a fundraiser for the 2020 campaign, was pulled backstage at the dinner for a quick hello with Biden and the first lady JILL BIDENsomeone familiar with the interaction told our DANIEL LIPPMAN. (Editor’s note: Lane appeared to meet all the major DC players on Saturday; a source familiar with the matter said Alex tried to flirt with her at the Paramount after-party, but her acting wasn’t not so great.) .

BINDLE? MORE LIKE, UH, BAD-LE: Several White House staff told us they (like many attendees) were frustrated with the Bindle app used by several WHCD weekend event hosts to demonstrate proof of vaccination and testing. A staff member said he complained to other managers about the confusing photo feature. Another dinner attendee said Bindle continued to reject the guest’s Covid PCR test result and was forced to report a different test himself.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Bharat Ramamurti tweeted this WaPo story by JAN TRACY on the success of black-owned businesses after the pandemic slowed. Ramamurti highlighted this nugget: “Black business ownership has rebounded, climbing higher than it had been before the pandemic… In 2021, black-owned small businesses were created at the fastest clip in at least 26 years .”

WHAT IS THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T YOU WANT TO READ: Former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve ROGER FERGUSON said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning that a recession in the United States is likely. “It’s going to be a very, very tricky tightrope into 2023,” Ferguson said. “I fear a recession, and I hope it will be mild.”

*crossed fingers?*

WEDDING BELLS: COLE EMHOFF, second gentleman DOUG EMHOFFthe son of and the son-in-law of the VP, proposed to his girlfriend GREENLEY LITTLEJOHNCBS News’ TIM PERRY reports. littlejohn posted the moment on Instagram with the caption: “Surrounded by friends and family in my favorite place I said yes to the love of my life! I can’t wait to combine our family.”

BACK TO THE WRITERS OF THE WEST WING: KATE CHILDS GRAHAMwho served as Harris’ director of speechwriting, returns to West Wing Writers, a Democratic communications group, to become a senior adviser.

MUSK-Y MEDIUM TERM PLAN: Biden and the Democrats are reconfigure their mid-term messaging amid bad economic news – and our JONATHAN LEMIRE reports that it’s about painting a stark contrast between them, Trump and the Republicans, which Biden has been reluctant to do. One thing they talk about inside Bidenworld: if it will help them if ELON MUSK allows Trump to return to Twitter.

TAI REFUSED TARIFFS: Days after three senior Biden administration officials offered to ease at least some of Trump’s tariffs on more than $350 billion in Chinese imports in hopes of curbing inflation, the U.S. Representative says Trade. CATHERINE TAI Monday cast doubt on whether removing tariffs would produce that result, POLITICO’s GAVIN BADE ttell us.

During an appearance at the Milken Institute, Tai criticized a report by the pro-free trade Peterson Institute for International Economics, which estimated that tariff relief could reduce inflation by up to two percentage points.

“I really have to question the premise of this study,” she said, noting that the United States and other countries have always had tariffs, but that this level of inflation is new to the world. during the last decades. “I think it’s something between fiction and an interesting academic exercise.”

The USTR declined to elaborate on Tai’s comments.

Kyrsten Sinema nearly quit Biden last year in heated exchange over his economic agenda, book says (Joseph Zeballos-Roig of the insider)

Six months to crucial midpoints, Biden faces many challenges (WaPo’s Tyler Pager)

The mystery of the Democrats: how to brighten up a presidency and a national atmosphere (NYT’s Katie Glueck)

He received the President’s Daily Brief in the morning.

He also presented the Presidential Rank Awards in a virtual ceremony at the South Court Auditorium.

Biden and the first lady hosted a reception to celebrate Eid al-Fitr in the East Room.

No public events scheduled. Harris tested negative for the virus today and will return to work in person tomorrow, her office said.

Before USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWERAt her 2008 wedding, she hosted a soccer game the same day and showed up at her hotel suite to get ready for the ceremony covered in mud.

In a 2020 interview with MM LaFleurPower said preparing for the wedding wasn’t too complicated after the game.

“I will say my wedding was in Ireland, so the hairdressers and make-up artists were certainly used to people arriving wet,” she said. “I think one of my knees was bleeding, I think it wasn’t a pretty sight, but I thought of a way to release the stress and bring everyone together.”

New hack to ease the nerves of marriage unlocked!

George SHULTZwho served as Secretary of State for RONALD REAGAN, outlined his views on how to respond to terrorists in a December 2002 interview with the Miller Center. He added: “It was 1984. I made a speech to that effect, which if you put it in today’s context is where we are, but it was very controversial.”

To learn more about Reagan’s presidency, visit millercenter.org.

A CALL – Do you Do you have a more difficult trivial question? Send us your best question about presidents with a quote and maybe we’ll feature it.

Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein